Not my problem?

Hot or Cold?

As the climate change debate heats up, there is still controversy about whether global temperatures are likely to go up or down.

The effects of global cooling could be as devastating as predicted rises but would affect different geographical populations in very different ways.

Before it is possible to look at how climate change will affect Bournemouth it is important to weigh up the evidence.

In the BLUE corner: The Gulf Stream

At the end of the last Ice Age, when the ice covering North America melted, the sudden increase in fresh water reduced the amount of salt in the north Atlantic surface water and therefore less 'dense water' sank and moved towards the equator. This reduced, or even shut-down completely, the warm Gulf Stream. Temperatures in north-west Europe fell by 5C in just a few decades. Today, the Greenland ice sheet is more stable, but an increase in global temperatures (and therefore melting sea ice) and precipitation may add more fresh water to the north Atlantic.

Current climate models predict that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, the component of the Gulf Stream driven by the differences in water density is likely to decrease by 25% in the next 100 years. As the Gulf Stream becomes weaker, it may become less stable and therefore be more likely to shut down completely in the future.

However current climate predictions suggest that any cooling of the UK climate is unlikely in this century.

In the RED corner: The Greenhouse effect

The Earth is surrounded by atmosphere made up of a variety of gases including the oxygen we need to breath. Gases like Carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane trap energy from the sun preventing them escaping back into space. Without them, the earth’s average temperature would be about 60 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than it is today.

The more Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases we emit into the atmosphere the more likely the world is to heat up. This happens because less solar radiation is reflected by the atmosphere and more is absorbed by the earth itself. Even a relatively small temperature increase could cause serious problems for humans, plants and animals.

Current predictions state that it is more likely that the earth will warm up in the coming decades. Read on for how this is likely to affect Bournemouth.